Election '08 (Canadian Edition)

[DaSmerg]

Oh yay!  We get to go back to the polls...yet again...to pick...yet again...another minority government.  *SIGH*

Why our illustrious PM has decided to call an eleciton at this point in time is beyond me.  I just don't see the Conservatives putting together a majority government.  Would another year really have been so long to wait?

Well it will be interesting with the rise in popularity of the Green Party and the seemingly shrinking popularity of the Bloq. 

I'm a bit frustrated by an election call really for no essential issue other than it seems like a good time 

[DaSmerg]

I just like how we're just talking about having a federal election Canada, and it would be over weeks before the US election. I feel for my US friends for what they have to go through with the never ending campaigning smearing.

We could very well see something similiar here considering the amendment to the Election Law (AKA Bill C-16) that the Tories made an issue in the last federal election, enacted during their current reign and oddly/coincidentally enough have decided to break in order to start this looming election (without loosing a confidence motion).

[DaSmerg]

Well it wasn't another stunt.  The trigger has been pulled and a October 14th date has been set.

Campaign begins: Canadians vote Oct. 14 -CBC News

"..."Her Excellency, the Governor General, has seen fit to dissolve Parliament," he said.

"We have come to the moment that requires the people of Canada to choose the way forward," Harper added, describing the current Parliament as "dysfunctional." Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion says the Oct. 14 election may be the most 'crucial' campaign in election history..."

Any predicitons?

IMHO, a smaller Tory minority government with an outside possibility of a small Liberal minority.

[BajaBravo]

IMHO, a smaller Tory minority government with an outside possibility of a small Liberal minority.

Another Tory minority, maybe even a close majority. Grits taking a beating, prompting another Liberal leadership race. Gains for NDP at the expense of the Liberals. Maybe a new Green seat.

[BajaBravo]

AAAANNNNDDD.... no one else cares. Just like about 85% of Canadians. :p

[Zazoo]

Unfortunately, I'm pretty ignorant when it comes to Canadian political news/elections.

~Mike

[BajaBravo]

Unfortunately, I'm pretty ignorant when it comes to Canadian political news/elections.

You'd blend right in as a Canadian. 

[Fixxxer]

Unfortunately, I'm pretty ignorant when it comes to Canadian political news/elections.

You'd blend right in as a Canadian. 

QFT

[DaSmerg]

Yay, it's election day!

Meanwhile, back on planet earth

Anyhoo, be interesting to see how it shakes up.

And for those following, count one vote for the Grits.  Not that it will matter in a riding forever held by the NDP.

[BajaBravo]

Another Tory minority, maybe even a close majority. Grits taking a beating, prompting another Liberal leadership race. Gains for NDP at the expense of the Liberals. Maybe a new Green seat.

Can I call it or what? Stronger Conservative minority. Liberals took a bath. NDP gains. No Green seat though.

What a pointless exercise.

[DaSmerg]

Completely agree 110% on the pointless waste of tax dollars on yet another election with essentially the same result. 

The only thing IMHO you missed is that we are going to see a Tory leadership race eventually too.  IMHO...and the opions of a few other non-NDP die hards out here I know...if Harper was not the leader (or Stockwell Day for that matter), the Tories would have had their majority.  I know I would have voted Tory but I just don't like Harper.

Mind you, not that that vote would have mattered in a riding held by the NDP for more than a decade now 

[BajaBravo]

Interesting. Harper failed to deliver the majority they were hoping for (primarily due to not getting the traction needed in Quebec) but with the gains made I certainly can't see him choosing or being forced to resign. Certainly there will be a Tory leadership question, but whether that means an actual leadership race before the next election... I'm not so sure. It's a baby/bathwater thing IMHO.

One of the key things about Harper, for better or for worse, he keeps everybody on a short leash. Remember the days when routinely a Conservative/Alliance/Reform MP would come out and say something really stupid, making the party look like a bunch or extremist nut jobs. It doesn't happen as much anymore. Most of those guys are still around but Harper sits on them. Without Harper's micromanagement, I'm not sure the Conservatives could hold it together. Also, who stands out as a replacement? IMHO the only real contender is Peter McKay, and there are still a lot of people pissed off with him over dismantling the PCs.  Finally, the fact the Liberals pretty much MUST have a leadership review gives the Conservatives an advantage they would have to give up if they chose to do the same thing.

How about the NDP and the Greens? See leadership races in their future? For me, Layton is a big reason why I will not vote NDP. He's probably one of the more effective political leaders, but I can't stand the guy! (that and I'm a natural Liberal - although I can't vote for my party right now because they have lost their way)

[DaSmerg]

IMHO the whole left side is organized and energized, same on the right, it's us Grits the centrists who are in dissarray.

I'm not sold on Dion but the problem isn't him...it's the whole Liberal party, platform and all, needs to be brought into the 21st century.  Green Shift, at least I think best examplifies this.  Green Shift isn't a bad idea, it's just a bad idea for right now.  Green Shift is a fantastic plan for say 1998 and it's economic realities not 2008.  Why the Grits have allowed the Tories and NDP to put everything from Manitoba west under a seeming Jedi mind trick is beyond me.  Believe it or not, people here in Van talk with great disdain about the Grits...at times with the same vitriol that they speak about Harper with.  The Grits need to really make use of the time in front of them and get it together and encourage a ground swelling of grass roots support from coast to coast to coast IMHO.  Also, these madatory leadership reviews need to go because it really does look like we are going to be in for several years of minority government.

I over estimated the Greens support base and expected them to do much better.  This cycle, they just seem to bleed votes away from either the NDP or Liberal candidate.  I will say though that I think they have come a long, long way though and Elizabeth May has been one of the people involved in making them credible.

What the F is up with Quebec yet again voting for the damn Bloq?  I just don't get it.  Don't we have provincial governments?

[BajaBravo]

I hate to kill a interesting discussion, but I agree with everything you say! Damb.

In particular about the Greens. In the 2006 election, the Green Party candidate in my riding (Durham) looked like she might be running for Student Administration, not for a seat in the federal government. She literally WAS a student at the college I teach at. The guy this election was SOOO much more creditable (and got nearly double the votes).

If I was running the Green Party I'd pick the best 2-3 ridings and openly focus all the parties resources there. The fact they are gaining more popular vote is not getting them any seats. Proportional Representation isn't going to happen any time soon. They have to actually get an MP or two elected at some point.

For the Liberals, I can't help but think Dion was a fall-guy. Like what they say about him on the Liberal website - "He’s a man of sincerity, honour and personal integrity." - not exactly the kind of guy succeeds in politics. It's as though they didn't want to waste what little flashy talent that didn't disappear with Chretien on an election they knew they wouldn't win. Dion's probably extremely competent on the policy side of being a politician, he's just not "front man" material. Kind of like a certain golden-boy former finance minister that blew hard as PM. Except that was a bit of a surprise IMHO. We knew Dion wasn't a charismatic leader from the get-go. I think you're right (if I understand you correctly) that it would be wise to let Dion steer the ship until they really get their sh!t wired tight.

The problem in my opinion with the development of a really juicy Liberal platform is that the Grits are more about pragmatism than ideology. They will adopt whatever policy best suits the situation at the time. I don't know if that's because of their party philosophy or because they governed for so long. Actually having to govern tends to make a party more pragmatic. Either way, I think that's what's great about them. The problem is that kind of thing doesn't sell well. They can't hang their hat on it at election time. So instead we get these big ideas like nationalized day care or the Green Shift. Big ideas scare some people because they fear change. They can also piss people off that know better because big ideas get shelved as soon as a party gets elected.

The Conservatives on the other hand just have to keep people convinced they are not right-wing nut jobs. Basically a strategy of "no sudden moves" is golden for them... for everywhere except Quebec I suppose.

I don't get the whole Quebec/Block thing either. I think that may be their point. "We're going to keep electing these ass-hats because you guys don't get us."

[DaSmerg]

I don't get the whole Quebec/Block thing either. I think that may be their point. "We're going to keep electing these ass-hats because you guys don't get us."

I almost fell out of my chair on that one 

[DaSmerg]

Speaking of ass-hats and their supreme leader...from today's G&M.com...Parizeau slams Sarkozy on sovereignty -GlobeandMail.com

"...Former Parti Québécois premier Jacques Parizeau slammed French President Nicolas Sarkozy's endorsement of Canadian unity Saturday, calling his comments “an outrageous remark” and a clear expression of “anti-Quebec sovereignty.”

Mr. Parizeau said he was astonished to hear the French President turn his back on Quebec's sovereignty movement and its quest for political independence...

“It's something constant in my political life. ... If someone tries to tell me that the world today needs an additional division, then they don't have the same read of the world as me,” Mr. Sarkozy said on Friday...

Mr. Parizeau said he doesn't share Mr. Sarkozy's vision of the world, pointing to the emergence of numerous sovereign states in recent years, such as those from the former Soviet Union, as a sign of the growing need for people to obtain their political independence.

“What this implies is that it is a judgment that is very anti-Quebec sovereignty that says: ‘We do not agree with Quebec sovereignty, we do not want additional divisions. We accept divisions everywhere in the world but not that one.'”..."

Gee, what a travesty that Jaques Parizeau has retired from politics. /end sarcasm

It's guys like Parizeau that keep this illogical divide betwen anglo and franco Canada/Canadians alive and well and give anglo nut jobs plenty of excuses.

[FritzDaKat]

Oooh, the Canadians are busy toying with their political machine! Quick my brethren, we must make haste and steal their trees while they are preoccupied!!

[BajaBravo]

Hmm. Sarkozy+++